No more diesel or petrol cars after 2040 - cloud cuckoo land?

[wookie]

and we thought it was science fiction

A fair few "Sci-fi" films are closer to being a warning about our future rather than just a entertaining fiction.

 

[zzr1200]

I'm wondering which way prices of conventional cars would go in 2039. Would electric cars have improved so much nobody would want conventional cars anyway, or would prices rise because people wanted to hang on to them for the next 10 years? or would the whole thing be a white elephant by that time.

The manufacturers will stop developement of small diesel/petrol vehicles around 2015 given there's approx a 4 year lead in to equip a production plant for vehicles, 10/20 years production, then 10 to 15 years later parts for said vehicles will be obsolete.

ATM, there's a massive discount for electric/hybred cars road tax wise, come 2040/2050 there won't be any road tax income from personal transport units. Hmmm, guess which vehicle road fund tax will chance....

They really think we're stupid....

 

[ronan]

A fair few "Sci-fi" films are closer to being a warning about our future rather than just a entertaining fiction.

Were you watching the progamme on BBC 4 earlier about robotics ? Scary stuff. What was science fiction a decade ago is going to be commonplace soon. Are we making ourselves obsolete ?

 

[Kent]

Did you know that carbon capture doesn't work on an industrial scale? They are still far too expensive. What we need are fusion powered CO2 scrubbers to clean things up!

I believe new technology means it can. I could check that out with an expert if I remember

 

[Wallace]

Seems like diesel engines cars may be banned from certain areas or taxed off the road to meet air quality targets. We just get lied to time and time again by each successive government. Will the car manufacturers who fiddled their dirty diesels management systems be compensating us or contributing to the required infrastructure for electric vehicles?

 

[Rocketman]

But if a genuine breakthrough happens such as batteries that can be fully recharged in an hour, then leccy really is the future.

We are only 15mins off that with the superchargers that tesla already have out there. If the s model does over 300miles on a single charge in real world terms it's not big problem charging for 20 mins gives you 50% to get 150miles+

Hold on in fact it makes more sense if you are on a long journey to do 50% charges. Two stops to charge 50% each time will take 40 mins total where as a full charge takes 75 min. Trouble is finding two superchargers on your journey.

Extract courtesy of wiki -

' Tesla supercharging stations charge with up to 145 kW of power distributed between two adjacent cars, with a maximum of 120 kW per car.[17][10][18] That is up to 16 times as fast as public charging stations; they take about 20 minutes to charge to 50%, 40 minutes to charge to 80%, and 75 minutes to 100%. The charging stations provide high-power direct-current (DC) charging power directly to the battery, bypassing the internal charging power supply.[19] The next version of Supercharging is expected to charge with more than 350 kW'

Mind you have a lot of them and we will really be worrying about blackouts without any major upgrade to the power generation infrastructure.

 

[Rig Pig]

I have a brilliant idea - all houses should be required to have a diesel generator to charge the electric car up to reduce the load on the grid!

 

[Keith 66]

Dont worry we will only need another ten Hinkley point nuclear power stations by 2030 to just charge all the cars. Thats ok just buy them from china. You couldnt make it up.

 

[8ob]

I have a brilliant idea - all houses should be required to have a diesel generator to charge the electric car up to reduce the load on the grid!

I have a better one, put housing nearer places of work . There should be big tax incentives for those that live nearer to their work place. Very bad planning has more to do with this than people think, industry should be spread out and not concentrated into industrial estates where access is poor and travel for the workers is a necessity. Take a step back and put small industry back into the countryside staffed by locals rather than bowl it over and use the sites as building land.

Bob

 

[rtbcomp]

This is a BBC Interview on the subject. As usual with any technical topic you never get the complete picture

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/powsx5l9htafabt/AAClqWfHEInWt1hUO28RNreWa?dl=0

They said in a later interview that hybrids wouldn't be affected.

 

[Kayos]

Not read the whole thing but picked up a few comments

CHP, fantastic, cheap and reliable
Except you need a BIG property as they need to stay on to be efficient, fitted some in huge new builds years ago and we still had over sized thermal stores and hot water storage to keep them going

Hybrids, where I used to live they had diesel electric busses running, they made so much noise and smoke being revved to the limit to set off they were worse than normal busses and got removed from the route

 

[rtbcomp]

Not read the whole thing but picked up a few comments

CHP, fantastic, cheap and reliable
Except you need a BIG property as they need to stay on to be efficient, fitted some in huge new builds years ago and we still had over sized thermal stores and hot water storage to keep them going

Hybrids, where I used to live they had diesel electric busses running, they made so much noise and smoke being revved to the limit to set off they were worse than normal busses and got removed from the route

That's why I suggested CHP may be OK on an estate-wide basis, incorporated in a substation.

We have (or perhaps had?) hybrid buses in Sheffield, the engines hardly cut out at all, even when going downhill.

 

[Burdekin]

Seems like diesel engines cars may be banned from certain areas or taxed off the road to meet air quality targets. We just get lied to time and time again by each successive government. Will the car manufacturers who fiddled their dirty diesels management systems be compensating us or contributing to the required infrastructure for electric vehicles?

Not sure if we were lied to, I think this was a genuine mistake or oversight. It's the nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel engines which I believe is the problem where as previously the focus was CO2 which diesel produce less of. SO, the question is if we switch back to petrol in a big way does CO2 then become the issue again?

 

[Wallace]

Where will all the light aircraft and private classic vehicle collections go along with the industry that caters for them? Some run into multi millions of pounds and I don't see those people will be willing to lose their investments overnight nor the ability to use them so there will be a market for petrol albeit in vastly reduced quantities.

 

[Wallace]

Not sure if we were lied to, I think this was a genuine mistake or oversight. It's the nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel engines which I believe is the problem where as previously the focus was CO2 which diesel produce less of. SO, the question is if we switch back to petrol in a big way does CO2 then become the issue again?

Good question, perhaps we can look forward to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions tax!

 

[rtbcomp]

Where will all the light aircraft and private classic vehicle collections go along with the industry that caters for them? Some run into multi millions of pounds and I don't see those people will be willing to lose their investments overnight nor the ability to use them so there will be a market for petrol albeit in vastly reduced quantities.

The interviewee on The World Tonight made the same point, he said there'll always be petrol for "the guy with the classic Bentley". All well and good, but who's going to stock fuel just for classic car users? Ebay?

 

[Wallace]

The interviewee on The World Tonight made the same point, he said there'll always be petrol for "the guy with the classic Bentley". All well and good, but who's going to stock fuel just for classic car users? Ebay?

Fuel stations that supply Hydrogen and electricity perhaps? The classic vehicle community and industry isn't just limited to Bentley drivers and I don't see the vehicles disappearing in the next 23 years nor the interest in them.

 

[rtbcomp]

I think what we (classic car owners) can hope for is that battery-only cars won't be the success everyone expects them to be and that plug-in hybrids become the norm. That way we'll have petrol until oil runs out and the strain on the electricity grid won't be as high as feared. There won't be the need for as many charging points either.

 

[CompoSimmonite]

Where is the money going to come from for people to actually buy electric vehicles ? Quick looks shows, at present, you can get a brand new Dacia for under £7000 whereas the cheapest electric car is around 3 times that. The electric car prices are missleading making you think something like a Renault Zoe, which is a lot less than what I'm quoting at £14000, is a bargain but you then have to add the cost of renting or buying the batteries.
I suppose the assumption is the purchase price will have dropped and battery problem solved by 2040 ?
Maybe time to stash traditional mechanical, rather than common rail electronic, diesel engines that will run on veg oil for transplants as they could be worth a fortune in a few years

 

[rtbcomp]

It's more likely to be the case that fewer people can afford cars and so there won't be as many cars on the road, which is an aim of Our Leaders anyway.

I wonder if they'll resurrect Motorail for long distances?