Wind power follies

[500e]

Look at the cost of experts on these big jobs, looked at a HS2 breakdown on this survey that risk mitigation people overseeing financials All experts all sadly out by a large factor expect it is the same in wind farms solar farms ect.

", I'd hate to think what a job involving tunneling would be like..."
Surely that is what the experts charge millions for, if your costings are that far out
These people set themselves up to do a job, how do they get the next job after showing themselves incompetent at best.
We have HS2 billions over budget and time, Police radio way over delivery date and therefore the old system has to be kept on line at a cost, who is supplying the old and new system, then you have the PO fiasco, the doctors record system
Everything is to clever and the people managing in a lot of cases not up to the job.

 

[minimutly]

Well I'm no expert, but I'd expect all the seismic tests in the world can't guarantee what you'll meet halfway through a mountain?
On top of all these cost risks the other would be the market price of energy dropping through the floor. Not defending anyone here, just looking at this from a project cost Vs benefit. Longer the project the higher the risk.

 

[Islander71]

that is disgusting.

ive been looking at a home-build turbine along the ridge of my new workshop - just a 100w or so to run pond pumps + garden lights.
even with the cost of storage batteries, payback time is 1/2 that of feeding back into the grid according to my calcs - and i can keep adding to the installation without falling foul of the g98(?) form "gotcha"[1]


[1] from what i've read, over a certain installation size, the application form puts the applicant on the hook for upgrading the entire network in the area if its deemed neccesary?

To give an idea of what amount of energy is likely to be produced, I've a well engineered 5Kw wind turbine - 4.8m dia blades on a 12m tower - in a windy position on a Scottish island. Over the past 17 years it has averaged about 18Kwhrs/day. It varies wildly from nothing for days, to highs of about 80 units a day. Certainly wouldn't recommend putting a wind turbine on a roof, you'd get too much turbulence, and it would shake the roof to pieces!

 

[Kayos]

Pricing? How can you price a huge construction project involving geollogy (tunnelling, sea bed works, I dunno what else? Then you have market changes etc). Yes you add a percentage to cover risk, bit even then this can be exceeded. I've built a few £1M plus schemes, every issue you come across needs more money to fix, I'd hate to think what a job involving tunnelling would be like...

You price it on risk and experience

I used to do small projects, you just have to understand the cost to complete on any size project. Most of my £6-15m projects are fixed cost, certain circumstances can have a variation but it is best avoided. The bigger stuff does have a different risk premium model, often cost over spend is shared between client and contractor

 

[mike os]

If you can't price it you can't do it, simple

And yes that applies to £500 or £5000000000...

HS2 is a perfect example of let's underprice/ screw the government, spend all the money then cry because you "cocked up" the price and can't stop because of what it already cost ... or we will go bust. A proper survey of hs2 should have highlighted all the issues.

Yes there are contingencies and some stuff that can't be priced, but that's not meant to apply to the whole project.

 

[R Kraft]

Mr Kraft, Wyoming, USA
didn't know europe was that interesting.....
of course once our's get away with the price increase ur lot will follow suit.....
Shame those in charge at Siemens dont take a salary cut to save us....of course that wont happe......
they may have to drink beer instead of Champers.....Toxxers.....

I read all the international news that I can.
News from Europe, India, Vietnam and dozens of others.
Alternate energy in Europe is interesting, because it is further along than the states,
I currently don't think a wholesale conversion to wind and solar is feasible here.

 

[mtt.tr]

If you can't price it you can't do it, simple

And yes that applies to £500 or £5000000000...

HS2 is a perfect example of let's underprice/ screw the government, spend all the money then cry because you "cocked up" the price and can't stop because of what it already cost ... or we will go bust. A proper survey of hs2 should have highlighted all the issues.

Yes there are contingencies and some stuff that can't be priced, but that's not meant to apply to the whole project.

HS2 was cocked up by nimbys Chiltern hills ended up with substantial tunnelling that was not forecasted, this was accepted by the gov as the land owners are primarily their voters.

£120m odd was spent on planning for one section.

Then on top of that a degree of corruption, their are some very full bank accounts now I'm pretty certain or not so much in banks but almost certainly used to buy assets that's what the wealthy always do.

Other nations are cheaper with these projects as they just push ahead with a like it or lump attitude, we are ruled by litigation which is won by the wealthier party.

We also have a completely inadequate antiquated planning system.

 

[minimutly]

You price it on risk and experience
I used to do small projects, you just have to understand the cost to complete on any size project. Most of my £6-15m projects are fixed cost, certain circumstances can have a variation but it is best avoided. The bigger stuff does have a different risk premium model, often cost over spend is shared between client and contractor

So would you take on a large scale pumped storage or barage scheme? Somethng with a 10 year build timeline? I guess it might depend on the estimated margin?

 

[addjunkie]

Other nations are cheaper with these projects as they just push ahead with a like it or lump attitude, we are ruled by litigation which is won by the wealthier party.

We also have a completely inadequate antiquated planning system.

This is one of the reasons the uk is so uncompetitive…..everything gets talked about, argued about, re talked about. Throw in a bit of public enquiry….bobs your uncle you've just wasted another few million.
Nuclear power is a prime example of this, as is that new mine proposed in Cumbria, yes you can, no you cant….

The longer a project takes, the more difficult it is to predict cost!

 

[minimutly]

If you can't price it you can't do it, simple

And yes that applies to £500 or £5000000000...

HS2 is a perfect example of let's underprice/ screw the government, spend all the money then cry because you "cocked up" the price and can't stop because of what it already cost ... or we will go bust. A proper survey of hs2 should have highlighted all the issues.

Yes there are contingencies and some stuff that can't be priced, but that's not meant to apply to the whole project.

But.... we are talking about net zero here, and reallistic ways to achieve it, not jus profit and loss, cost vs benefit.
We surely by now have got used to the fact that our net zero pledge will make us poorer? If not, do some research.
So, if this is the g.ments goal, they need to somehow make it happen - setting up private contractors to fail is no answer, so ultimately the publics money will need to be spent to build, or, to guarantee the project.

 

[addjunkie]

But.... we are talking about net zero here, and reallistic ways to achieve it, not jus profit and loss, cost vs benefit.
We surely by now have got used to the fact that our net zero pledge will make us poorer? If not, do some research.
So, if this is the g.ments goal, they need to somehow make it happen - setting up private contractors to fail is no answer, so ultimately the publics money will need to be spent to build, or, to guarantee the project.

No issue with government money been spent on infrastructure…..but wasted is an entirely different matter. The concept for me that springs to mind, way back when I were looking to buy my first house….a local builder could build me a 3 bed semi and sell it to me for 25k……..the 3 bed semi council house cost 42k to build and deliver.

So using the above a new power station built for profit, no subsidies would be 5 billion, a government one would be 8ish….who pays the difference those of us who earn enough to pay tax!

Having worked on multi billion dollar projects I understand how prices spiral….but we need to appraise, decide and then make it happen, rather than fiddle about with semantics and box ticking policy! On time delivery is the only way you have any chance of meeting cost estimates.

 

[500e]

Emergency services radio system '£3.1bn over budget'

The Home Office is criticised for failing to deliver a new radio network for emergency services.

www.bbc.co.uk

And that was 2022 where is it

Airwave replacement by Emergency Services Network delayed another four years

An emergency service radio system that was due for replacement in 2019 will be used for another four years, costing the taxpayer a further £1.6 billion.Airwave, has supported police, ambulance and fire service communications since 2000 but the network is “reaching the end of its lifetime” and has “

www.thetimes.co.uk

AND

The UK government is looking for a new emergency services network provider

Previous EE ESN deal seems to be falling apart

www.techradar.com

What a mess

 

[minimutly]

No issue with government money been spent on infrastructure…..but wasted is an entirely different matter. The concept for me that springs to mind, way back when I were looking to buy my first house….a local builder could build me a 3 bed semi and sell it to me for 25k……..the 3 bed semi council house cost 42k to build and deliver.

So using the above a new power station built for profit, no subsidies would be 5 billion, a government one would be 8ish….who pays the difference those of us who earn enough to pay tax!

Having worked on multi billion dollar projects I understand how prices spiral….but we need to appraise, decide and then make it happen, rather than fiddle about with semantics and box ticking policy! On time delivery is the only way you have any chance of meeting cost estimates.

Yes, and no... building a house is one thing, building 100 houses, well that’s just a lot of the same and cost reviews can be inserted and if things are going nuts cost wise you can choose to stop. Building a long term civils/gological, engineering project is slightly different though. Aside from actual project costs you could have things like covid, cost of living “crisis”, brexit (loss of workers), maybe all three in the mix. A long way from house building I would suggest.
So if you want to be “green” - how do you do it? You guarantee the project by fixing the output value - hence Contracts for Difference. If your price is too low, no one bids....
Good luck trying to complete a multi million pound project based on “On time delivery and penalty clauses” basis, no one would build it...

 

[mike os]

Good luck trying to complete a multi million pound project based on “On time delivery and penalty clauses” basis, no one would build it...

Until you make all contracts that way ... with contingency, not please fill my bank account clauses.

All contracts have a duration/ completion date unless written by idiots. Anyone understanding contract terms aught to be quite capable of anticipating and including annual cost increases .. over several years (Bar genuine unexpected stuff) Stuff happens that may throw it off but open ended, free for all stuff that we see on every contract at the moment just defies belief quite frankly.

All the 'tech" should be in place and priced to the last washer. Only reason for that to change is significant cost effective improvement or safety.

 

[daleyd]

increased costs you say? Hinckley C joins the conversation…

 

[minimutly]

Until you make all contracts that way ... with contingency, not please fill my bank account clauses.

All contracts have a duration/ completion date unless written by idiots. Anyone understanding contract terms aught to be quite capable of anticipating and including annual cost increases .. over several years (Bar genuine unexpected stuff) Stuff happens that may throw it off but open ended, free for all stuff that we see on every contract at the moment just defies belief quite frankly.

All the 'tech" should be in place and priced to the last washer. Only reason for that to change is significant cost effective improvement or safety.

You're missing the point, or rather the bit of the point that defines the benefit. You cannot guarantee electricity prices in 10 yrs time, so you cannot guarantee the success of the project.
Wind farm timeframes are much shorter, with fewer risks, so you'd think these would be viable - obviously not even with the cfd (albeit at too low a price).
This brings the whole net zero thing into question - if its the huge opportunity the Labour party are trumpetting it as....

 

[mike os]

I don't have to guarantee energy prices in 6 months ir 60 years ... oh I forgot, it's not actually a free market is it? It's actually a monopoly with a government guaranteed bailout

If it was free market the market would determine the price,

 

[minimutly]

I don't have to guarantee energy prices in 6 months ir 60 years ... oh I forgot, it's not actually a free market is it? It's actually a monopoly with a government guaranteed bailout

If it was free market the market would determine the price,

You don’t, but whoever backs the multi million pound energy project does, or, it doesn’t get built.

 

[Morrisman]

This is one of the reasons the uk is so uncompetitive…..everything gets talked about, argued about, re talked about. Throw in a bit of public enquiry….bobs your uncle you've just wasted another few million.
Nuclear power is a prime example of this, as is that new mine proposed in Cumbria, yes you can, no you cant….

The longer a project takes, the more difficult it is to predict cost!

My dad was on the county council for our town for a few years. He told me about the amount of money poured down the drain for so many reason, about the meetings that that were held in London, or Blackpool, about local town issues. All expenses paid of course.
Why the hell would a dozen or so councillors need to go on a jolly to Blackpool to discuss local policy, or whatever the crack was??
He would be allowed £80 a night allowance for the hotel, for two or three nights, but he'd drive home after the meeting was over, to sleep in his own bed, yet he was still paid the £80.
And I'd wager every council, and other government body, is exactly the same.

 

[Kayos]

So would you take on a large scale pumped storage or barage scheme? Somethng with a 10 year build timeline? I guess it might depend on the estimated margin?

You wouldn't look at margin on something like that, it would be IRR, either lifetime or 25 year blocks

I am looking into things I can't discuss here, but some of my early stage stuff has grid connection dates after 2030